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Old 02-19-2006, 07:35 PM   #1
DrugSalvastore
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 837
Betting Coup or Paranoia?

I'm possibly starting to get paranoid---but on Feb. 16th at Gulfstream Park, in race number six, I saw, what possibly might have been a cleverly executed and successful betting coup.

#4 Ann Harris had four listed workouts, all of which over the turf. She had raced twice in her career, both times in MSW races on turf. Both times she showed no hint of early speed, and steadily faded to finish abysmally.

She is owned and trained by Fred Seitz, A trainer who went 2-for-15 last year. Winning once with a $37 horse. Seitz decided to drop her into a MCL race and run her on the dirt. He named Kristi Chapman (43-0-0-5 at the meet) to ride. The fact that the filly had no listed dirt workouts, no dirt form, and a 0-for-43 rider named...and two hilariously bad looking running lines on turf, pretty much ensured she would go off at gigantic odds.

I thought I remembered seeing her at 90/1 odds right before the race. I could be mistaken though, as I assumed she wasn't a well meant filly, and paid little attention to her. If you watch a replay of the race, on the tv she's 70/1 and sitting 2nd, about two lengths back, with a half mile to go in the race. Her odds drop down to 60/1, as she starts to make a decisive winning move. She ends up winning by 4 lengths in the end...and pays $123.20 to win. Exactly 60/1 odds.

She was taking late money from someone---I would assume that it was someone who had an idea that the horse is well meant and had handled dirt well enough somewhere before in her life.

Maybe this trainer/owner is a sneaky little devil--or maybe, his filly just dusted a horrible field, and a lot of little coincidental stuff gave off the inaccurate impression that the stable made a little betting score.

I don't know which is the case...but I do know, I won't so quickly dismiss this trainers horse--if a similar situation arises again.
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