Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I've also found things that outperformed the take fairly significantly (both positive and negative) with fairly large samples covering multiple years that didn't stop working in terms of predicting outcomes, but the odds changed and they were no longer of any real betting value.
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This cliche is another wives tale. Same baloney I've heard from Beyer years ago.
If this angle or data is so great it's ROI is reduced in the win pool, it's not necessarily reduced in the exotics. We've all seen Pickems pay boxcars with 3/5 horses in the mix. And it can reduce the price of your exotic ticket if its such a "great" bet.
And if you don't play exotics, only win bets, then double your bet if you believe in it so much. There's no excuses you can't get around.
