Looks like the favorite was off by one tick plus or minus, that's pretty much par for the course at NYRA. If that isn't good enough for someone I'm not sure what they want to see. Thirty five years ago before 'CAW' we definitely had more odds volatility than that and won anyway. If we're playing by rule of thumb on any of these favorites and insisted on a 50% overlay before betting then you only potentially went under fair value once (Race 6). To each his own I guess. Betting by the win pool odds at 0 MTP is likely going to be worse. When I tested several years ago I was going under fair value on my bets over 40% of the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
had some time this morning so here were projected double odds and final odds for Saratoga races 3 to 7. A lot of scratches and short fields but here it is: projected odds based off double pool going into race(closed pool) and final odds.
Race 3
4) 1.94 .......2.5
10) 17.13......14
11) 7.2.......4.5
12) .85......4/5
13)4.82.......5
Race 4)
1) 7.08.......8
2) 4.43......6
3) 1.90......2
4) 5.96.....7
5) 2.83.....3
6)4.72......5/2
Race 5)
1) 4.54......4
2) 7.80.....9
3)3.27.....7/2
4)6.07.....5
5).78......3/5
Race 6)
1) 13.43......11
3) 1.13.......3/5
9) 6.43(maybe 6.93)......8
11)2.66........7/2
13)2.48........7/2
Race 7
1) 14.19...............20
2) 11.31...............12
3) 43.69...............44
5) 3.82..............2.5
6) 8.38..............6
7) 7.06.............9
8) 1.04...........6/5
9) 6.48...........7
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