Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
What makes the tote-board wrong? This keeps coming up as good handicappers should know better when a lot of these horses win and win big.
|
What makes the tote board wrong is when wagers are made according to scenarios/patterns with a seriously negative expectation, as in false favorites. False favorites do not magically appear--the crowd chooses the wrong set of values or is impressed with attributes that are negatively associated with good performance. Most of what seems to be "smart money" is the complete opposite.
If it was really "smart money" you certainly wouldn't be able to see it by casual observation of the tote board. The wagering would be so diffused that the only ones who noticed would be the conditional bettors looking for "value" who avoid betting--enabling the "smart money" bettors to get more down on what they consider a lock.
