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Originally Posted by traynor
The point is, that is not true. It ONLY appears so when one is looking at the world of racing as a one-time event, with no connection to anything that has gone before. In reality, the behavior of the betting public is as predictable as any other factor.
It isn't complex, complicated, unknowable, or hidden in any way. It just requires a bit more astute analysis of the available information than knee-jerk response to tote board movement. Specifically, it is useful to know when the tote board indicators usually associated with "insider betting" are based on insider betting and when they are based on (usually skewed and unrealistic) public opinion regarding some factor or combination of factors.
A simplistic example--speed on the rail wins three in a row. E and F--in your scenario--have inner posts and a bit of early speed. D and C are outside, and slow starters. What a myopic view might conclude was "insider betting" is perfectly normal under the circumstances. While the reasons for the tote action may not be as blatant (and noticeable to the uncritical observer) as that indicated above, in most cases they are both knowable and apparent. If one is using appropriately sophisticated computer models.
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okay traynor, it would be good to try to categorize dysfunctional tote-board patterns. Maybe this is possible. I still believe these anomalies would be too difficult too categorize. It would be just easier to give into that there is something happening that we don't understand.
