Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
example 1
My morning-line = B-E-A-C-D-F-G-H
My top-4-picks = A-B-C-D-E-G-F-H
I notice the tote action is = B-E-A-F-D-C-G-H
Next I compare My morning line (B-E-A-C) to the Tote Action (B-E-A-F).
The public is betting "C" as the sixth choice, instead of the fourth choice, and is betting "F" as the fourth choice instead of the sixth choice.
I did not anticipate this!
Since "E" is a big underlay here, I'm going to make money over the long-term with "A" and "B" in this race. If I want to use vertical exotics as well, I will use "F" along with "C" and "D".
example 2
My morning-line = B-C-A-D-E-F-G-H
My top-4-picks = A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H
I notice the tote action is = B-E-A-F-C-D-G-H
Next I compare My morning line (B-C-A-D) to the Tote Action (B-E-A-F).
The public is betting "E" as a top contender, and "C" is ice-cold on the board.
I did not anticipate this!
I don't know why the public is behaving in this fashion. I will pass this race entirely except when linking to a high-value multi race series, where I will now be forced to include the "E" (A-B-E-C).
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Complex, but I think you have worked out a sensible plan. I had to keep rereading to finally get it. Basically it's an ebb and flow. The value flows upstream in scenario A where you wager, and the values goes down stream in scenario B making it a race to skip.
