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Thread: I'm convinced
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Old 02-10-2018, 05:35 PM   #15
Robert Fischer
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
mr. market and 'UOB'

Mr. Market is here to serve you, not to guide you.
It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”


I think that the above is generally true in racing.

UOB (unexplained odds behavior)
However, I believe that you should have an understanding of what odds to expect. If you understand the race, you should know how and why the tote board market will behave.
When the odds behave differently from what you expected, - this is telling you in real-time, that YOU were wrong in your understanding.

You should almost always pass the race when you realize that you are wrong.

Once in a while, you will notice a horse that is hot or cold enough on the board to justify a wager that treats 'Mr. Market' as rational entity.
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