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Layoff Horses
Some interesting observations in this thread. As noted, a lot of horses win off layoffs now. I think you can make a case that you could profit from betting horses that haven't raced in over a month, and even betting horses that haven't raced in ninety days or so. Since the horses don't race as often now, most trainers don't believe in training them into shape, they train them to be ready first time off the layoff. And often, their last start wasn't that good and the odds are generous. Whatever went wrong in the horse's last race, or last few races, is corrected and the horse is fresh and fit and much more eager to run.
One of the reasons horses come up with flat efforts, or bounce, is that they just don't feel like fully exerting themselves today. A freshening can make them much more eager to run.
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