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[lamboguy]

its

Originally Posted by pandy

I've had some of my best scores with longshot firsters. My rule for first time starters, longshots only, betting first time starters below 9-1 odds, rarely a good bet, trainer intent and win percentage with firsters, works, win early or speed pedigrees. Trainer intent is pretty basic, for instance a horse that debuts with blinkers is not prepping, it's a go. Two year olds debuting for top barns at Saratoga, Del Mar, are not prepping, the owners are there to watch their horse win. That's why even a patient trainer like Nick Zito has popped many two year old firsters at Saratoga over the years.

A bullet work or fast gate work, not prepping, trying to win. I also like to bet firsters from barns that are suddenly winning with firsters. For instance, John Sadler used to be terrible with firsters then a few years ago he got hot with firsters and has stayed hot.

But streaks can end. John Kimmel was once the best firster trainer in New York, now he rarely wins with a firster.

A good way to catch boxcar prices, high dosage in sprints, 3.00 or higher, many winners that pay between $40 and $100 right out of the box. Horses bred for speed win far more often first time out than horses bred for stamina.

Workout reports can help, for instance, Zenyatta's debut was amazing, I bet her because the clocker reports raved about her and said that she was finishing her workouts very fast and on her own, breezing. Breezes are always more impressive than handily.

all true. i ran a horse this year at monmouth for $50k mcl, she got beat 10 lengths, she win next out msw and paid $25.00. she didn't win the first time because she didn't train over the monmouth surface, she came up ready, but she went farm to gate which is very tough to do on a surface like monmouth. its completly impossible to do in calder. you can win going farm to gulfstream and saratoga though. i had one in for a saratoga race but had to scratch because the horse got sick on the ride up.