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Old 06-12-2020, 12:10 PM   #5
MJC922
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Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
My hunch is there's some validity to it but unless you can come up with a metric to capture it and then test that metric to see if it increases accuracy then it may not be worth paying attention to. I feel the same way about track bias or anything else. I know there is a track bias sometimes but let's see a metric that ends up having some impact on the forecasting.

What I suspect you'll have with a rider on a streak is oftentimes just random variability, but even if the rider's recent string of successes is somewhat random there may also be something to be said for the confidence and state of mind. Maybe that transmits to the horse. It may even be worthwhile as a negative factor but not a positive, i.e. if the rider is hesitant and tentative for whatever reason could be a recent spill or several close calls etc, it wouldn't surprise me if some horses can pick up on that and act accordingly.
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