Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
IMO what gets overlooked a lot is the effort. If the horse fires its best effort that often wins regardless because in many races if you look at 'back' races each horse's best effort is usually good enough to either win or be right there.
I look at the trips to re-order the final positions but still keeping in mind that how ever good the race was it's only one effort. By that I mean if a horse is 3 lengths the best and did not have the easiest trip but the effort is 5 lengths better than it feels like running in 9 out of 10 starts then this effort doesn't make it the classier horse. You might say the horse has ability off of the quality of this one legit race but that's as far as it should go. There's class and there's an effort, for me anyway they don't always mix because consistent effort is class. Temperamental horses that run a lot of pure junk non-efforts mixed with effort, that = less class in my book.
These temperamental horses can be playable at nice odds or even be big plays against at lower odds when they'll be off the board in a seemingly favorable scenario because their head isn't always in the game.
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My views on "consistency" are a bit unorthodox and probably differ from yours, sir. But just to clarify my post, my impression isn't so much that the "beleagured" winners referenced are capitalizing on superior class as often as exploiting sharp form, that is transient, even momentary superiority.
