Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Why are we even discussing whether there would be a difference in handle between Saratoga and Saratoga at Belmont? This is very basic and VERY simple. Saratoga is the strongest brand in the sport. It commands the most attention from every stakeholder. You can’t run it elsewhere and expect the same results. Look at the off-track handle figs. I took a record Belmont Saturday and compared it with a new Saratoga Saturday and the difference was almost 10%.
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In terms of revenue, part of the formula is how much you handle on/off track, part of the formula is the quality of the races, and part of it is number of starters.
All those things must be considered, but we are getting bits and pieces of each from people trying to justify the move and not a total analysis that includes COSTS (which has been my point) and RISKS.
Maybe a valid analysis exists at NYRA, but it wasn't in that article that was posted and I surely don't know it.
Saratoga has many of the premier races of the sport each year, the typical card is of much higher quality than Belmont, and there are more starters per race.
That's what created the brand over and above the beauty of the track and town (which won't be in play if there are no fans).
Do you think the Travers, Alabama, Whitney, Woodward, and other Grade 1 race cards of that caliber are going to handle a lot less off track if they are at Belmont?
They might handle less, but imo the difference would be a lot less off track than you are implying with quality cards like that compared to what's typically run at Belmont (all else being equal).
So the question is whether all the incremental expenses and possible incremental risk is worth it to move trainers, families, equipment, and other backstretch workers to Saratoga just so they can do none of the things that make Saratoga special when they can run the same races at Belmont from the safety of their own homes and save money.
I don't know all the costs, but Gary Contessa does. He appears to want to stay home. I can't blame him. That's why I brought up the cost side. No one else was. If things turn around enough in the next month or so that having some fans is a consideration, then it's an entirely different story. As is, IMO it's close call.
