Who Are Your Top Derby Choices?
For the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many. There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit (as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside. Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like a surprise pick to some but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest, and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.
Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys, but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.
Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track), and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.
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