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I think it can be confidently said that a foreigner won't win the Derby this decade. Ky Derby is a whole different world from winning a Breeders Cup race.
The program for 3 year olds before May elsewhere around the world is very limited. There are many ways here to get to the starting gate First Saturday in May, whether CA, FL, NY, AR, etc. Whereas any international horses will have to beat the clearly inferior horses in their country then basically allowance types in the UAE Derby. That does not get you close to ready for primetime on Derby Day.
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