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Old 04-28-2020, 11:16 AM   #24
classhandicapper
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Does anyone know when a final decision has to made on whether Del Mar can run and whether it will be with or without fans?

We all know the models being used to project the virus are dependent on what governments do, how people respond, and a lot of subjective assumptions that often turn out to be wrong, but mid July is a long way away.

Here are the projections for CA.

This model is essentially saying that by early July CA will be done with new cases of the virus. In fact, it's saying things will great by the end of May. If that's even close to accurate. Del Mar will be probably running in July and may even be allowed to have fans.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...ica/california


The same is true of NY and Saratoga.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

Again, these models could be way off. Also, changes in policy to loosen things up and balance economics vs the virus could push these dates out further by exposing more people in May and June, but if they are even close to right we are not that far away from some good news in May.
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