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Old 09-07-2020, 10:13 AM   #9
classhandicapper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
....................

Churchill race 13 - the Turf Classic

the #1 horse - Factor This went off at 5.50/1

the #8 horse - Sacred Life went off at 1.90/1

*
IMO, Factor This didn't take as much money as you expected because there were 2 other speeds in the race (Somelikeithotbrown and Spectacular Gem) that could press him or force him to run fast early. He also wound up outrunning True Valor who was ridden aggressively.

Sacred Life was competitive at the Grade 2 level, finished 4th in a good Grade 1, was coming off a powerful closing effort in a slow paced race, and imo most importantly in terms of the betting was trained by Chad Brown.

As it was, the pace was pretty fast, all those chasers tired badly, and the pace is probably why Factor This got beat. The public just settled on the wrong closer to pick him up.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-07-2020 at 10:18 AM.
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