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Furlongs per day
Summary of discussion points so far in looking for a way to score furlongs per day and other fitness aspects as related to Handicapping.
Some thoughts gleaned from this forum and other sources:
Generally more race and more workout is better than less.
Horses can be overraced (< 3 races in 31 days).
Ideal Furlongs per day (WO and Race) is 0.4 to .08 - eqitec.
Previous race less than 9 days ago is a negative.
about 50 days is normal 'resting' layoff.
DSLR more than 60 is a negative.
DSLR 9 ~ 21 is ideal, Next best is DSLR 21 ~ 28.
A recent workout < 15 days ago is helpful.
A pattern of workouts and races is best. approx. 7 day pattern is best, Next best are 14 day and 21 day pattern respectively. These can't be strict, a day or three variation is to be expected.
Some thoughts that are Trainer focused:
Some trainers can greatly minimize the affect of a Long Lay Off.
Some workout activity is under-reported, trainers can benefit from 'hiding form'.
Some trainers are better at getting/keeping horses fit than others. Can they be scored, graded?
Physicality is an area of handicapping that can be employed when you have the opportunity to see the horse. In person at the track is best but a lot can be determined by watching satellite, internet feed.
I appreciate any feedback / debunking / dispelling of Old Wive's Tales, Old 'Capper's Tales, Old 'Capper's Wives(Husband's) Tales or etc.
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A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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