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Back in the day, the recreational handicappers still lost money. But they could pick a solid horse and get 5/2 on it. Now if they get that price, the horse runs out of the money, and if it wins, the whales have drilled it down to 6/5. Back in the day, a recreational player could get 16-1 on a reasonable longshot. Nowadays, if they get that price, the horse finishes a length in front of the field in the NEXT race. The few times the horse wins, the whales have bombed it down to 6-1.
The whales never stop being hungry and never give anything a rest. The recreational players get tired of seeing this and of feeding the whales, and they move onto casinos, poker, sports betting, or whatever. I don't blame the whales for trying to make money, and I don't blame the recreational players for not putting up with it. But it isn't a sustainable model.
Will the tracks do anything about it? You bet they will. They'll go out of business, one-by-one, because they can't see any farther than the tips of their noses. Today today today, never mind about tomorrow or a year from now or ten years from now. Cut corners, cut back on days, cut purses, increase the takeout. All signs of a failing industry.
You think differently? Remember when tracks used to run six days per week WITHOUT any revenue from casinos/poker? Name one that does so now. How about five days per week? There are a few. Name a track that was around in 2005 and cards MORE days per week now than it did then? I can't think of any. Name some that card as many days. Not many. The majority have cut back.
Eventually, there won't be anything left to cut back, and tracks will start falling like dominoes. Nor is there a guarantee that there is a floor to this before the industry is extinct in this country. Other countries ---- those in which the industry had more foresight --- may well survive. I'd be surprised if the industry righted itself in North America before it was too late to save it. I hope I'm wrong.
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