Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Do you look for specific race shapes that seem to stand out from a high level and then dive in for a more detailed analysis or do you approach it more from the standpoint of following specific horses that may have left an earlier impression?
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I watch the replay of every dirt graded stakes race and many listed stakes races around the country. I make detailed trip & race flow notes for each of those races and bias notes for each of those race cards using my computer generated metrics on the makeup of the field, my own analysis, and a quick look at the TimeformUS pace figures for that race (when they come in).
I do similar work for turf, but only the more major races.
I am especially focused on certain trips/bias/pace/ground loss/bad start/race flows I think may slip through the cracks or that I think may be misunderstood by conventional wisdom.
Race day I go to the PPs of the races I'm interested in, scan all my notes to see if anyone I think is a strong upgrade or downgrade is running, look at my pace projections and get a feel for who the contenders are. If there's a horse I want to key on or against, I try to figure out if there's a way I can construct a bet that makes sense given my opinion.
Monday through Wednesday I'm usually just updating my database, running calculations for my metrics for the previous week, watching replays and making notes.
