Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Nitro, Maybe you answered this before. Do you ever pass betting your top three if odds on your top three are low and 1st three favorites? I know the top three fav's historically used to win 67% of all races. Some on here have studied that and said recently it might approach 70% at many tracks. I've read that Saratoga it's lower. For example:
Pick 1 : 6/5 : 45.5% - $42 bet- $92.4 return if wins
Pick 2: 8/5 : 38.5% - $35 bet- $91.0 return if wins
Pick 3: 3/1 : 25% - $23 bet- $92.0 return if wins
Total top three = 109% - $100 total bets. It appears when the top three bets are dutched and total combined odds pct. is over 100%, it's impossible to make this profitable. What am I doing wrong?
Alt. scenario:
Pick 1: 8/5 : 38.5% - $47 bet - $122.00 return if wins
Pick 2: 5/2 : 28.6% - $35 bet - $122.50 return if wins
Pick 3: 6/1 : 14.1% - $17 bet - $119.00 return if wins
Tot. top 3 : 81.2% - $99 total bet-$121.00 average return if wins. With three dutching bets in this range, you would have to win 82% of your bets to break even.
Can you tell what your total threshold for dutching the top 3 is cut off?
|
I will absolutely pass any race where the combination of odds on say 3 selections produce a very low Profit Margin %. The average 67% hit frequency for the top 3 betting selections is pretty much agreed on. However, this also refers to those 3 entries with the lowest odds at post time. We generally see an average of only 7 or 8 entries in a race. So it’s not uncommon to see odds like 8/5, 5/2, 4/1 (or lower)
Using those 3 as an example this is what the Dutch chart looks like:
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 2.5 4.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $10
$10 $7 $5 $23 $3 15%
$26 $26 $26
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 15%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 85% in order to remain profitable!
Using the suggested Alternate scenario:
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 2.5 6.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $14
$14 $10 $5 $30 $7 23%
$36 $36 $36
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 23%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 77% in order to remain profitable!
As I mentioned (above) because my hit frequency right now at HK is 57% I would not play any races that had a known Profit Margin of 50% or less. So far out of the 74 races posted there has been only 1 race that came in with a 45% Profit Margin.
