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Originally Posted by traynor
I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."
Mine a decent size database for information on the races in which a given horse wins or finishes less than a length behind the winner. Correlate that with the horses position and beaten lengths at different points in the race to establish a "pace profile" for that particular horse. Do enough of those, and you will realize that a given horse's "pace preference" is more related to the riding style and preferences of its jockey than to innate characteristics of the horse.
Specifically, unless you have some convincing data to the contrary, to say that "pace is overrated" is an understatement. Again, with a few notable exceptions, horses win races because their jockeys took advantage of opportunities for advancement, and got their mounts to the wire first. (Crude "examples" from a handful of races are not considered "convincing.")
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I think every horse has a best way of running and accordingly a best way to distribute energy for its best results. Call those innate characteristics. I would agree that jockeys certainly can alter a horses preference but generally to the detriment of the horse.
