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[traynor]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am amazed that so many people want to measure ML as a handicapping factor (for which it is worthless).

Not the smart guys here, but the general public does not understand that. As such, the ML is (by its very nature) a self-fulfilling prophecy factor.

Because of that (I believe) ML does a better job of predicting the final odds than any other factor.

I do not mean that a 5/2 ML means the horse will go off at 5/2. Of course not. The line maker is not that sharp. As mentioned before, they are too conservative.

But, if you adjust the "booking points" of the ML to the number of normal booking points at the track and skew it towards the favorite by raising the values to a power of around 1.08, you will find that it is a remarkably good predictor.

Sure, sometimes it says 4/1 and the horse pays $3.80, and other times it says 5/2 and the horse pays $16, but, hey, guess what? The tote board at 2 minutes to post will do that too.


All I can tell you is that I use it to make value-based assessments (although not the way you would logically assume) for a long time without EVER using the tote board. In fact, when I attempt to use the tote board instead, it causes me to miss-bet the race consistently.


IMHO, you guys are seriously underestimating the use of the morning line. It can be used to your advantage.

Agreed.