Robert,
Just my opinion of course, and as everyone knows they are like butt holes...
Everyone has one...
All of your Morning Line facts above are on the money...
Same with your UOB points and especially your update to fact #2...
It is no surprise that the crowd will always over bet the ML favorites in most cases. I think that's a good thing! Because our goal, if were smarter handicappers is to always find the horses they under bet that stand out with whatever handicapping system/methods/software we use.
If I'm not mistaken we call them OVERLAYS !
THE PROBLEM:
A Lot Of Players Have Become More Educated These Days!
It's so obvious too... That's why there are fewer betting opportunities for the smart player. You just have to play the waiting game longer for a playable race. HAS ANYONE ELSE NOTICED IT TOO?
That... along with increasing track take outs is why this game has become increasingly a tough one to beat consistently.
As a Win bet player, I find myself looking for value in the exotics or even place bets more these days...
There are a lot of people out there that want to see the ML go away...
On that side of the coin I say fine... LETS DO IT! It would be great for those of us who create our own Morning Line/Fair Odds Lines. At least we might even make some decent money again.
At least for awhile... Just another opinion, I mean butt hole (sorry)...
John
~żo
