Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger
This has been interesting. My question about Fibonacci handicapping is what if two horses should both be 5 to 1 and two should be 4 to 1? It doesn't seem to allow for that. Am I wrong?
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I think it can be handled, but the process may be handled differently for each person who uses it.
If you take the fibonacci series:
21 13 8 5 3 2 1 1
and you have two values tied for the 3rd & 4th spot, you might decide to assign 8 to both (the higher number), 5 to both (the lower number), or take the sum and divide it by two and assign 6.5 to both. My spreadsheet uses the latter approach.
Then, when assigning odds, you need to have some "wiggle room" rather than ensuring that they precisely match the total score. In my opinion (hardly worth much), the actual "morning line" odds assignment is likely less critical than the relative rating would be.
For example, here is what I have for Race 1 at Del Mar after scratches (the second number is the point assignment, the odds come from a lookup table I created):
1 8.22 7 / 1
2
3 2.46 37 / 1
4 18.10 3 / 1
5 21.76 5 / 2
6 15.23 4 / 1
7 43.13 1 / 1
8 10.38 5 / 1
9 27.00 9 / 5
10
Before the scratch of the
, the
and
both were at 5/2. Elimination of the
moved the
up higher in a couple of categories.
The limitation I see is that this methodology discourages the handicapper from evaluating the impact that a speed dual or an extremely slow pace might have on the overall outcome, but I like its simplicity.
