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Ask a Trainer.
I don't want to volunteer Cannon Shell or Chad or any other actual trainer/former trainer who posts here to answer questions, but if they want to, i think we would all appreciate it if they could chime in. Just questions you would love to ask a trainer to help your handicapping, i've always believed that if you can think like a horseman, it will be an immense help to your handicapping and horsebetting.
The one thing i would like to ask and discuss is the idea that horses are much more fragile than they were back in the day. Since many or almost all of my wagers are from video replay analysis, i've found the tightrope i'm walking has to do with horses who run TOO big, look TOO good on tape and they just can't duplicate that performance when i bet them back and i end up losing money on a horse who looked fantastic on tape and yet, that horse didnt look fantastic in his or her next start with little or no warning.
Its certainly up to the trainer to make sure that the horse has adequate rest to come back for a top effort the next time, but that just isnt very practical to wait around forever, so a lot of connections will run back too soon. Its my job to sniff out the ones who had a 'hard' effort and stay away from them if they're back too soon even if their tape looks sensational. Certainly a fine line. I've missed winners who i thought were 'over the top' but they had one more big race in them.
One of the questions would be how the modern thoroughbred reacts after a race, does the horse in 2013 seem more 'drained' in the hours after his race than the tbred of 20 years ago and what is the recovery process like for the modern runner (in the hours and days directly after a race) and does it differ in any way from what happened a couple decades ago ?
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