Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
Are there enough of these waiver-claimers to chart how they do, in general? A new column in the spreadsheet? Some coding for "pm workout" vs "well meant, needs one" or something like that?
I guess I've seen them before, but never thought about factoring in a reason why and just 'capped them like all the others.
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Over my decades there, it was a actually fairly simple process once you know the players involved. Nothing is always right but here are a few parameters to work with to get you to a decision.
Back then you did not get trainer stats like today, you had to know them or guess. Today, you do.
Simply look at who the trainer is and that trainers record off 90 or more days and optimally, 6 months or more, whatever they give you, and that is a good start.
Now look at the horses form and see how the horse did, not just how the trainer did, off time or as a firster. Doesn't have to be that length of time but whatever is available.
Once you have those, look at the rider, not to see if it's the leading rider, it most likely will be far from that, but look at the success of that rider or relationship with that trainer , if you can find that. That will help.
Put all that together and you have climbed into the trainers head as to what he/she is trying to accomplish. Are they just trying to get the horse back to the races and see what happens, or are they trying to take full advantage of a horse that does very well off time, and, the horse is doing real well.
While the cashing tickets stuff does exist, I pay no attention to that angle, having seen pulls and can't lose horses go down the tubes at about a 85% rate over many years of time. It's a great story, and a gamblers dream, but on the back side, it's rarely that.
You can look at the works for spacing consistency but pay little attention to the times. It's not how fast but "how" they do it. I doubt many would allow the horse to go fast.
Lastly, look at the horse on the track. If it's fat, I doubt it will run well. But if it's proportioned properly, well that's a real good thing.
Please note that this is like a two minute handicap but I think it should and I hope that it will help.
GL.
