Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.
Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.
I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.
I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????
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Someone at HRN posted that Bandua was not coming, but I don't know if that is correct. If he runs, unless he has crazy long odds, I will likely not use him at all, due to money constraints.
Yesterday, Coolmore confirmed Seahenge, he was always expected to run, since the Derby. I'm pretty sure the primary motivation in running now is to give the Ryan Moore practice for when Mendelssohn ships over for the Woodward, unless they use a local jockey, but even then, I think practice for September is still a key motivation.
He's a decent horse. His Pat Day Mile is pretty indicative of his style. He is the anthithesis of swift, but he can get into a rhythmn and keep at it, even when totally out of his element, not unlike Vino Rosso. Of all the horses in the field, he's the one I know has the fitness to stay 12fs, how many miles hacking uphill over rolling fields in county Tipperary, do you think he's laid down in his life? He has the right style for the race.
TBH I thought I would like Blended Citizen, but his dirt form is the exact opposite of what wins this race, his turf form is perfect, but he is another animal on turf. He should have been in the Pennine yesterday instead of the Belmont next week. Doug will likely run him in the Belmont Derby in the summer. His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.
FWIW Pharoah's dosage was 4.33, with an 88 CD. For pedigree, I prefer AWD of sire/dam/sibs. For this race, I prefer energy distribution over all else. Pharoah was a metronome.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truen...-distance.aspx
