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Originally Posted by clicknow
I like Blended and Hofburg (but don't think either can win) and Bravazo other than his most recent romp in slop at Preakness really isn't a very accomplished horse and he's had enough races to prove that. Blended does seem to like the BEL track but will have to watch hofburg gallops. Tenfold looks awesome and we haven't seen Bandua yet.
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Bandua is going to race in The Queen's Vase (or something like that) instead from what I saw on HRN.
Bravazo has run the following pattern: 1 bad race, 3 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, so will the Belmont be a 3rd good race or a bad one?
The horses that win the Belmont have very flat running lines, with gradual decelaration. The ideal horse was Secretariat, because his natural rhythm was consecutive 24s, Pharoah was a good Belmont horse because he had a similar, though slower, natural rhythm. Union Rags, though a snail, also had the right running pattern too.
Its not primarily a pedigee race, its a rhythm race. The fastest horse with the flatest pace line wins. After the flat paced horses are identified, adding in pedigree and jockey can help refine choices.
I haven't gone through all of the horses yet, but I went through the four I was most curious about
: Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, and Bravazo. Blended Citizen is out. Bravazo is still a cipher. Tenfold is very strong, as is Vino Rosso.
Vinno Rosso's pedigree is the best in the field, Curlin over Street Cry, he has the best jockey for the race, he's fresh, and his owner actually wants to win. I think trainer is less important, but Pletcher is probably the best for this race.
Tenfold has a good pedigree for the distance. Assmussen said he's going to breeze him slowly, 1:01 to get him in the right frame of mind, which is the best strategy.
Tenfold fits the winner style better than Vino Rosso, but Johnny V is a no small thing.
Edit--Restoring Hope looked interesting, he's a Giant's Causway, and when there are two Baffert's in a race, bet the one with longer odds.
