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The public win % is only better than any individual's win % when every single race is bet on by both parties and a comparison is made. The public actually sucks at handicapping in the general sense. Why? Because it is comprised of the entire spectrum of bettors from the top skilled players to degenerate gamblers who bet on everything. If only the top skilled players were allowed in the win pool for example, then the favorite would win at a much higher rate than it currently does. The lower skilled players' contribution is the only reason there can really be any "edge" if you happen to be a better than average player.
I have seen races where the "public" made a certain horse the favorite that only had 2 or 3 previous races in it's lifetime history. The rest of the field had 6+. The horse lost. Upon closer observation it was apparent that the reason that that horse was made the fav is because Mr. Top Jock was on board. Do you consider this a good betting selection method?
"Well maybe all the other horses in the field looked terrible so that was the only choice." WRONG. You have the choice to pass the race altogether.
Bet only when you are confident (knowing if your confidence is based on a solid foundation is key or else you only have false confidence).
Knowing when to pass is just as important as whatever your selection criteria consists of. Personally, I pass every race where all the horses have a bris speed rating under 80 for example. There are many more reasons to pass. Do not underestimate the contribution that appropriately passing races makes to your total roi.
As far as making a so-called accurate odds line. You have a better chance at winning the national lottery than accomplishing such a task. Anyone who could pull that off would have themselves an ATM machine. The difference between winning and losing (long term win-only flat betting) is never a simple matter. My advice: Study running style, closing ability, itm% in the stretch & finish. Develop your own uncommon factors if you can. Try to find reasons why your horse may lose instead of why it should win. Look through your past records. If a particular selection lost but it finished in the top 3 and the post time odds were higher (meaning 4th fav or worse), find the reason why you bet it and investigate other races with similar qualities for a pattern. Don't be afraid to pass. There are thousands more races to be run.
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