Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91
Yet even here , my studies have shown that there is great value and a large bias towards front running - looked at on a % of runner basis and by impact values - front runners enjoy a massive edge and if can be predicted consistently , is where the money is. This covers data from all UK Flat turf tracks (34) from 2009 - 2017 and is modeled against bookmakers final Starting Price (SP) which have the tightest margins (avg 14% overround / take) profits would be even higher at Xchange prices.
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This conforms what I have been saying that the belief that turf races must be ridden fast late is more a matter of tradition than there being some inherent quality or bias of the surface that favors closers. Given the slower pace of turf races, there is an advantage to ridding against tradition and running the race more evenly and efficiently. There is much to be won by betting against these conventional beliefs.
