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Old 12-02-2013, 11:48 AM   #4
Dave Schwartz
 
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
Sorry, I missed this until now.
(BTW, make sure you read to the bottom.)

The world is broken into two camps:

1. Beyer View: The value of a length changes in proportion to the distance.
2. Quirin View: 1 point=1 length

The Beyer view is that the value of a length should diminish as the distance gets longer. This is very logical.

The idea is that if you and I have a foot race, and you are faster by (say) 10 lengths (or seconds, or whatever) at 100 yards, you must be better by 20-somethings if we double the length of the race.

The problem with this actually becomes obvious if you think of the above example. Really... consider a race between you and someone you know (perhaps from your youth - LOL). If you raced a particular distance of ground, and you were 10 lengths better, would you really be 20 lengths better if the distance was doubled?

The answer is, "probably not." Perhaps this would be true if you ran (say) 10 yards then 20 yards... a distance where you could go full speed all the way. But the reality is that in a race between horses (or people) you don't run that way. There is just naturally a "pacing" issue.

This becomes very obvious in turf racing. In some turf races it looks as though nobody really wants the lead. The leaders spend most of their time looking over their shoulders to see who is where. How much of the race is all out?

My test for this was to look at beaten lengths. It seems to me that, if in fact, the lengths-proportionate-to-distance concept was right, then the average margin between the first two finishers would increase proportionately as we go from 6f to 9f. In other words, the average beaten lengths would increase by 1.5 from 6f to 9f.

They do not.

They do increase, but only slightly.

IMHO, there SHOULD be a slight increase. However, it is no where near 1.5 times from 6f to 9f.

Between the two options, I chose the Quirin approach because it is closer to reality. It is also simpler.

BTW, I actually have a switch in my par times to extrapolate the pars outwards using the increasing theory. I did this several years ago, took the resulting pars to import races and tested the results. By comparison, the results were just terrible. I mean, really bad.

Again, just to be clear... there should be SOME change. I could certainly make those changes, but then the system would become much more difficult for everyone to use. Slightly more accurate, but tougher to apply.

One more thing... to use the human-to-human example, there comes a point where the beaten horse, uh... guy... just gives up. As a result, the losers' speed figures are always underestimated if they finish far behind.


Want an interesting adjustment approach? Try this... take any lengths behind at the finish that exceeds 8 and treat it like an 8 when making the speed numbers. IOW, you have a race that goes in 102. There are two horses that finished 8 & 15 lengths behind, respectively. They both get 94 ratings.

You will be amazed at the results.

All of a sudden, those "impossible" longshots that win are not so impossible.


Currently we are selling or 2013 Par Times. The 2014 Pars will be out in March. If you purchase the 2013 Pars now, you will automatically receive the 2014 pars when they are available. (If you order print pars, we will charge you shipping twice.)

I am telling you this because right now you can purchase everything in our store for 40% off!

So, if you are going to purchase the 2014 Pars, this is the best time to do it. EVEN IF YOU ALREADY PURCHASED THE 2013 PARS!


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