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I'd WAY rather find a few inefficiencies than worry about having a better quality odds line for every horse in every race. Find me some trainer pattern that wins at 25% at average price of $10.00 and I'll take care of winning without an odds line. Find me 10 things like that and I'll keep myself quite busy even though I won't be able to make profitable odds lines in many races.
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That approach will not work.
If it did, one could just use a number like BPP that produces a win rate around 30% in the top rank. Using your theory, a horse at 2/1 is break even and 4/1 should be a killer.
The problem is that the 30% hit rate goes higher or lower based upon the odds.
Same thing with trainer stats.
Or any other factor.
