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Originally Posted by Ghostzapper04
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.
I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.
I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.
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Welcome, Ghostzapper04.
Every software program that I've seen, including ones costing $1500+, fall way short of the mark setting a reasonably accurate odds line. If anyone knows of software that does this calculation well, I'd sure like to know about it.
That being said, I create my own odds line based upon the number of true contenders in the race. For example, 3 contenders might be 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1 totaling about 80% of the win pool. I always leave about 20% for the other horses to make allowances for surprises, bad handicapping etc.
Here is a good place to start :
http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/07/m...odds-line.html
Good luck to you.
Doc
