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Originally Posted by lamboguy
this is very simple.
standard handicapping approach deals with history. when you read pace numbers, sheet number's, racing forms, or watch replay's, it all goes back to the same losing strategy HISTORY. everyone knows HISTORY. some people interpret it differently.
i prefer to try to predict the future with tools that have different history than what everyone else looks at. those tools are not for sale like racing forms. and not everyone would know how to use those tools even if they had them.
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It's good that you are using an approach that is unique to you for competing at this game. If it works, use it.
I personally don't feel that HISTORY is a losing strategy and doesn't deserve the hard knock that you are giving it.
(I note that in the next breath you say that you are working with tools that have a different history than what everyone else looks at. That's a bit puzzling. First you knock it, then your tools have it??)
Past Performances are usually reasonably good predictors of FUTURE performances.
The fact is not everyone, as you say, knows HISTORY.
Secondly, a large number of players who have access to HISTORY, are befuddled about what to do with the information that they have.
That's not HISTORY'S fault.
That's the players inadequacy in interpreting it.
For most races, virtually ALL OF THE INFORMATION that you need is right there in the PAST PERFORMANCE lines.
Certainly reviewing race replays (that's HISTORY) and observing the paddock and Post Parade can add to a handicapper's arsenal as well.
