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Old 04-16-2023, 05:46 AM   #203
romankoz
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Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 101
I have this book and finally dipped in for a refresher.
None of the actual statistics were of use as has been mentioned here they all lose.
What I had done is underline key comments such as "try to determine exactly what the change is and why it was made" p. 340. My emphasis would be "why"? which kind of leads to "get to know the trainer better than his wife knows him" p342 which leads to "some trainers are ready to roll on opening day..." p 347 which finalizes at "keep records and you'll understand trainers mind games" p 349. Page 350 lists a number of "his record..." checks.
I think one of the better comments is "playing against the trainer who is doing poorly... is often more lucrative".
Mathematically if there is a trainer in a race whose record with 4/1 and less chances is ordinary, and believe me there are quite a few of them around in OZ, surely their odds are unders long term so mathematically you will be receiving better odds on other trainers/runners.

I think thought provoking ideas are more important in this book than the stats. The reader needs to extend themselves rather than expect the book to solve the puzzle.

By some Godlike grace my book opened to p.391 where I have highlighted "who is likely to be underbet in this race" and "not who is likely to win this race".
If you know your trainers and jockeys you will have a good idea to start with. I know in OZ when some trainers travel a fair distance have a second look and ask as above "why" has this trainer traveled.
I personally backed a 16/1 winner at Ascot in Perth on the basis the trainer B Borg took two horses across the country simply because he may travel to the closer Qld more often but going to Perth is a big move for a trainer like him.
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