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[classhandicapper]

spalding,

I don't spend a lot of time analyzing every sentence I write to make sure no one anywhere could possibly misunderstand me. If I misunderstand them, I accept it when they clarify their position.

This is how I see it.

IMO, if you were to set each country's overall Grade/Group racing on each surface to some kind of numeric standard, I don't think many would argue that US turf racing is at the top. However, it's good enough to occasionally produce horses that can compete with the best in the world and maybe even win.

In years past, I don't think most people regarded Japanese turf racing to be as good as the best turf racing in Europe. But it was good enough to produce the occasional star that could compete with the best.

IMO, the gap between Japanese dirt racing and the best dirt racing in the US was probably considered wider, but they were making big investments trying to improve it.

As to recent success, I don't think Japan is doing so well because it's competing more on the world stage. I think the overall quality of their racing has improved on both surfaces, but even more so on dirt. So there are more horses they believe are worth sending around the world to compete and more that can contend and win.

As to the quality of their dirt racing, imo winning in Dubai and Saudi Arabia is not quite the same as winning elite dirt races in the US. Some of those races are very good, but they are typically not up to the top Grade 1 standards in the US. However, it's good enough to make me think that at the rate at which they are winning and/or in the top few slots they are getting pretty close to being able to come to the US and have very good success on dirt here too.

IMO, that theoretical rating I mentioned above has been rising in recent years but even faster on dirt.

I can't recall what the triggers were that made me think the racing there was getting better (especially on dirt because that's where I focus more attention). The first one I can recall taking a stab on was Espoir City (and I don't need a book describing his career and races). I bet him in offshore futures against Zenyatta at a big price. The reason I remember that one is that after I made the bet I read that he was working very poorly and I had no way to cancel my bet.

I don't think I'm the only one that saw the emergence of Japanese racing (especially dirt) coming. But I think perceptions in general among many US fans and gamblers is just catching up to reality because of this flurry of success.