Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Don't you have anything better to do?
|
Please, not in front of the interns...
Quote:
|
There's obviously been a huge change in perception around the world and on the odds board about the quality of Japanese racing in general and specifically dirt racing over the last couple of years (which is what I was mostly referring to).
|
...and a huge goalpost change noted: Dirt racing only...
Quote:
|
That a few Japanese superstars of the past shipped and got bet (and mostly didn't win) or that other people were also aware of the change means exactly what?
|
I must have reading comprehension issues. You just got done saying that there's a "huge change...on the odds board" regarding Japanese shippers but now confirm my earlier statement that Japanese shippers have been getting hammered at the windows for decades.
I know, I know...dirt, dirt. I'll get to that.
Also, I guess I misinterpreted "I was wise enough...before the whole world caught on..." to mean you alone vs. everyone else. Maybe it was all the other "I's in your post.
Perhaps switching to the royal "we" would help...you've earned it.
Quote:
|
If it was so obvious, we wouldn't be hearing all the paid talking heads on TV and on social media making such a big deal about it now. They would have been betting them all along at bigger prices.
|
Betting who exactly? Who are all these Japanese dirt shippers you picked up on 10 years ago? Better yet, what were these international
dirt races that they were shipping in for that long ago?
Certainly the US efforts of Ski Captain, Taiki Blizzard, and Personal Rush didn't betray the impending onslaught of Japanese might in the past 3 years.
Quote:
|
Perceptions and now prices have unquestionably changed dramatically over the last 2 years about the overall quality of Japanese racing among US talking heads.
|
Actually, the real change has little to do with perceptions & odds boards. It has everything to do with the increasing amount of Japanese participation on the international stage.
Ignoring turf, here's the last few years of Japanese starters in the major international
dirt races (i.e., the BC, Dubai, and Saudi):
2018 - 4 starters, 0 wins
2019 - 3 starters, 0 wins
2020 - 5 starters, 1 win
2021 - 17 starters, 3 wins
2022 - 15 starters, 1 win
2023 (only 3 months in) - 31 starters, 3 wins
This year's Japanese winners won at square prices if you could get a bet down.
The catch? With multiple Japanese starters running in the same race (e.g. 8 in the Dubai WC and 6 in the Saudi Cup), it's not enough to say that the Japanese are on par in terms of quality.
You still have to handicap the race and bet the correct Japanese horse...
