Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The performance of all favorites in general is very easy to find. It will clearly show that those that don't break through the gate (if noted in the chart) do MUCH better than those that do. Most people know how favorites do these days from a Win%, IV, and ROI perspective. I would say though it wasn't presented by o_crunk that is pretty much because it is a known quantity. Even those that don't really know can look at the break through horses and know they are much worse.
I also happen think you guys are greatly overstating the data problem here. It isn't perfect, but it isn't near as bad as you guys are pretending and certainly not bad enough to skew the statistics posted from being quite negative.
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That may be so but have yet to see a good study to prove it. As I said earlier, the gates are designed to open easily so as to not have an negative effect on the horse but until someone does a proper Quirin-like study it will remain a matter of opinion.
The most absurd claim that started this thread was that 92% of horses that break through the gate proves they are at a disadvantage. If a drug company found a medication that cures a disease 80% of the time it is naive to think it is a miracle drug. Sometimes just a placebo will have the same effect. That's why the FDA requires a control group to recognize the effect. It's just as naive to claim that 92% losers means they are at some disadvantage when just about all starters lose about 90% of the time.
As for the other study, it totally misses the point of how to pick and set up the appropriate study if the intention is to see whether breakthroughs, as a part of either the general population, or favorites are poor bets. Had I presented. such stuff to one of my research methods professors, I would have received an F and a stern reminder to pick the right method to prove my hypothesis.
Personally, after have spent years of time and sweat in my graduate study and teaching of research methods and statistics, it disturbs me to see them misused so often - just like advertisers and politicians do.
