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"All it does is try to tell you out of the population of horses that breakthrough whether they do better as favorites or not."
Really, that's not what I see. Maybe you're looking at a different study.
I think we might have a pearls before swine situation here.
The study clearly shows breakthroughs are a strong net negative.
Not sure why all the hole poking. If you have a better database , fine, but as cj says, unless this one is totally screwed, the conclusion is clear.
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