[tinfoil hat off ahem serious rational handicapping]
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I don't buy the Epicenter conspiracy theories because even if Rosario decides he's not going to hustle Epicenter out of the gate, he has no idea that the pace will be so slow (24 and change). He gives the same ride, and the pace is 23 and 2, Epicenter gets up and wins. He gives the same ride, and the pace is like the Derby, Epicenter wins by 8.
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I respect that opinion.
As far as I can see, both horses are reasonably close. 'Raw' Epicenter may be a little 'better' as far as part of their equivalence being after I allow for Early Voting's faster early pace, and the lack of pace rivals, and the Pimlico track.
After those factors, I can't really split them up. Epicenter is more proven...
If you or anyone has them different or has multiple contenders, you will have different ideas.
pre-Preakness - - Early Voting may have some upside that I haven't seen... Epicenter just ran a reasonably big performance in the big race Kentucky Derby, so he's going to be favored on my line and moreso in the public's eyes.
Secret Oath and Simplification reduce the takeout a little in my own value line.
I can't tell if Early Voting or Epicenter is better in that field on the Pimlico track.
(then with the unusual Giacamo Syndrome betting of Fenway ( I mean "
Fenwick", and "
Happy Jack"... I guess a small $100 player like me should just throw away the puzzles, and Dutch the
and enjoy the festivities ).
[TINFOIL BANDANA BACK ON] or "can a peasant censor a king"]
as far as the Trip?
a bit unusual for a Grade 1.
The
and the
had cooperative tactics.
Usually this kind of stuff is reserved for a MSW when a big owner has an expensive or likeable horse and it's a big local field, and nobody really cares if there is an 'uncoupled' entry.
Knowing this, I think Rosario would have no choice but to almost quarterhorse and bully his way outside toward the front of the
Skippylongstocking. Rate as much as possible while wide around the 1st turn, ( assuming
wasn't freestyling tactics to then focus on herding the
even wider; ) try to advance a moderate position on the backstretch, begin his run far turn around the time Irad passed the baton to Jose. -- and all this would still handicap Epicenter enough as to make it an advantage for the
.
And that's if Rosario was a mindreader!
Even if you followed Brown's comments about a 'target', and Yakteen's comments that they had no worry of Epicenter out-breaking their early pace, you wouldn't guess that the
would break well, look around, and the
would break well and outward, and then cruise up to lead a slow pace.
Epicenter was the only contender other than Early Voting. Epicenter was posted outside the
and has less early pace than both
and
AND THERE'S NO SPEED THREAT INSIDE. If Messier was post
, it's a totally different game.
