I found this really fascinating from Barry Meadow's new book "The Skeptical Handicapper"
it refers to the favorite/longshot bias which Tom Ainslie identified in his classic book from the 1960s
I've heard many say that the favorite/longshot bias no longer exists
obviously it still does exist and is quite strong
these are the results from data from about 863,000 races - IV means impact value which I cannot now give a good definition of but it's not really necessary to understand the implications of this data:
sorry but I don't know how to make the image the proper size
for horses going off greater than 15/1 the ROI is worse and continues to get much worse as the odds go up
