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Originally Posted by Redboard
Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses."
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Just means the most times that it would 'make sense' that you could lose in a row.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.
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The figures I gave were for 10,000 events.
As you decrease the number of events (e.g. 1,000), the maximum consecutive probable losses, also decreases.
So if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times, you may lose as many as 13 times in a row. Or if you flipped a fair coin only 100 times, '7' is the most you should lose in a row.
These are just the 'maximum'. You could have several bad losing streaks over a series of races.
And that's about as specific as my excel sheet formula gets. I'm not a mathematician.
If you were making a betting system, you'd probably want to know stuff like "What is the max. consec losses in any given 20, 30, 40,... race block", to account for stuff like a losing near your max and finally winning and then starting another streak...
It can get very complicated, fast.
Kelly criterion is really the measure that you want to work from when looking at a system, but something like the max consec losses is fun probability stuff and can be eye-opening.
