Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
using the 67.1% ITM, the max. consecutive probable losses = 8
if we use 50% to cut some slack for era difference and random race selection = 13
In order for the max. probable consecutive losses to be 22, the hit% would equal 34% (which is closer to typical favorite win% than ITM)
so, yea, he was improbably unlucky if true, or story was conflated with consecutive losing favorites.
|
But what if he played 1000 consecutive races? Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses." It's probably a little over my math-challenged head.
But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.
Maybe there's a math whiz here could tell us how many consecutive times you have to flip a coin where the probability of getting 22 straight heads (where the crooked coin is weighted to show up heads only 33% of the time) is, say, 50%.
