Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
I went back and handicapped the race using figures as well as Early and Late fractions. From my chart below, you will see that I also came up with   as the early speed in the race (hence the GREEN bold)
If I had to narrow this race down to three horses, my order of preference would be   . If I were making an odds line for WIN bet purposes, I would probably go no lower than 3 or 4-1 on the .
The only reason I could see the public making this horse that much of a favorite is his OFF track figure of a 104 (using Brisnet figures) as well as the 3 for 3 in the money on the off track. |
IMO...it wasn't the "public", per say, who made this horse the 3-2 choice in this race. Horses with mediocre speed figures and nondescript running lines don't get the overwhelming betting support of the "public"...especially when these horses figure to be in last running position during the early part of a sprint race. I doubt that a high lifetime-best off-track speed figure could account for such betting action...especially when it was pretty obvious that this horse was no longer the horse that it once was.
If this horse had won at odds of 3-1...then I wouldn't have bothered to start this thread. But the horse was the overwhelming favorite in a competitive race...and I thought this oddity was worth mentioning on this board, if only as an indication that the "smart money" don't just rely on the figures and the replays in order to make their selections.
