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Thread: BOOMER"S PLAYS
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Old 03-31-2010, 09:11 AM   #50
boomman
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Join Date: Mar 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oexplayer68
Hi All,

I gave these a try (favorite-busters & spot plays) last week based on the recommendations on this board, and let's just say they didn't work out so well for me. The spot-plays had an .86 roi and I haven't calculated the favorite-busters, but I believe they were probably up after hitting a very large trifecta on Sunday at Aqueduct. I'll write a detailed post about my results with these when I get some more time next week.

The spot plays seem to be mostly lower-priced horses that do hit for a fairly good percentage. It's pretty hard to keep a positive ROI going playing so many short-priced horses. There were numerous winners in the $3.00-$5.00 range during my week, and a few in the teens but nothing higher than that.

The favorite-busters involve huge trifecta and exacta boxes.....upwards of almost the whole field on some occasions minus the favorite. I played these for four days and absolutely got ripped, then gave up on them the last day and they popped a big one of course. Boomer says this is all by design, and they are looking to beat vulnerable favorites which I totally agree with. It was just really hard for me mentally to do this as even though I'm a spread-player, I never ever spread like that deep. I do this for a living, so bankroll is not a problem for me, but the drawdown on these plays would get most players and make the rest of us sweat big-time.

That said, Boomer told me both services are running at the 1.10-1.15 level since inception which is fantastic if true. I have zero doubt that they do hit some big licks on these exotics the way they play. Most of us probably like to take a little more of a stand, so I had to discontinue the service as I just hated to lose any more money on stuff that I didn't come up with on my own, or handicapped the race differently.

Boomer seems like a good guy, and maybe these things are good as gold. I would pay way more than he's asking if they are anywhere in the black over a long period of time. Kind of wished I had just got the service during the trial, or just bought them and watched for a couple of months before losing so much of my own cash. The one thing I would say is that if you are thinking about going this route have a very large bankroll and a lot of patience. The big one will probably be coming but if you play trifectas or supers you might burn through some cash before they hit.
oexplayer:Yes, the favorite busters include big spreads by design. Now anyone can pick a random a bunch of races and tell you to spread but it's our race selection that's the biggest part of why we have done so well with these. Our database shows that only 17% of those we identify as bad favorites will win, only 35% of them will finish 1st or 2nd, and only 49% will run ITM. That compares with 32% /53%/ 67% for all favorites. Half the time we successfully toss the favorites from the top 3 slots.

The value comes from tossing the favorite, not keying on just one or two horses. That strategy doesn't make any sense in short fields or where the favorites are strong (or even average) but in the races we chose, it's the key to cashing monster exactas. By my count we have hit at least eight 300-1+ exactas during the past 2 months as well as a couple of 2000-1 tris and 10000-1+ supers. And we only encourage players to obtain the plays over a long period of time as that is where you'll see the most value. Every PA member that has contacted me has been told that and even witnessed a positive ROI when just looking at them over the free 30 day trial period last December (not to mention long term) as opposed to playing them just a few days........

Boomer
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