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Originally Posted by Cratos
Dr. Roman’s Dosage methodology appear to have worked on frequency statistics which works on the number of occurrences of an attributes and there is not case of dependency, but are you suggesting that he should have used. Bayesian statistics which are applicable in the data sets where every attribute is dependent on every other attributes and every attributes existence is purely conditional?
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I'm really suggesting that given both the small sample size and the lack of uniformity in the sample, there's really nothing that can be said about the influence of sire lines in the Derby specifically that's going to be very useful.
What COULD be useful is a Dosage-like system that looks at ALL 1 1/4 mile races, or all races of longer than a particular distance, if it could be statistically established that there was a significant correlation between influential sires in the pedigree and performance in such races. But such a system would only have limited utility with respect to the Derby.
