Typically to win the Derby a horse has to have Beyer figs of 100+. Among this year's 3 year olds, that is a
very short list. He's had 3 starts running a 101, then a 104 and yesterday's race which is probably going to be a 105-108. I'm not seeing anyone around to match those figs.
After 3 starts he has won about a million & a quarter. Not bad for a colt with allowance conditions left. Going into the gate he was a little washy and Smith said he became a bit distracted at some point. Considering those two things, even more improvement may be on the horizon.
Re his being loose on the lead, if you look at the chart, Bolt actually was 1st at the break but didn't hold the lead for long. When Castellano made his move, it was described as urging, but it really looked as though he was working his horse hard, while Smith was sitting chilly the entire race.
I don't bet CD, so I don't have a Derby pick, but if I did, at this point I'm not seeing anyone else.
