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First timers are inherently overbet. Especially ones with fancy connections like a popular jock or top trainer.
People don't realize that an unraced horse has to be prepped specifically to win first time out. Very few win unless they're prepped to win as FTS. People think that if a FTS is the fastest horse he might win, but that's not how it works. Most trainers with a talented youngster arent going to crank them up to win first time out because they dont want to ruin the horse by doing too much too soon. They givem a race or two and then the horse might be ready to fire a great shot.
There's a time and a place to bet firsters, you can make nice money knowing when and where.
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