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Skeptic,
I kinda-sorta followed your math. Doesn't seem wrong.
Here's the thing...
Most approaches, especially those that are based upon pace, pick early horses.
The average mutuel for all winners is around $13 and change. The average mutuel for horses that win early is probably slight more than half that - which is why players that bet early horses wind up on so many horses that pay $7 or less.
The average mutuel on horses that run late is probably more like $22-$23. So, finding a way to bet good late horses makes it a lot easier to be profitable.
The early horses have a tendency to be somewhat obvious, hence the $6-$7 mutuels. Besides, there are usually only 2-3 to choose from in the conventional pace approach (i.e. velocity or pace ratings).
Late horses are way less obvious. They often pay a price because they are far from obvious. Many of them win not on visible merit but because the other horses failed. But there are simply too many to bet them all. Remember, there are usually 3 early horses, which leaves 5 late horses.
(Who are the late horses? - The ones that are not early.)
So, NewPace explains how to get these higher-priced mutuels.
Our expectation is that we will get 80%+ of all winners in our top 4 horses per race!
In addition, we expect to get 80% of the winners above 4/1, gradually scaling down as the odds go way up. But even way up, to the $60 and up prices we expect to get pretty close to half of them. (Admittedly, some of these come in an ancillary plays - what we call "price only" horses." This adds about .5 horses per race.)
The important thing to look at is that when the day is done you see two groups of horses: Our contenders and the non-contenders. When you look at the non-contenders below 8/1 or so you will see that they are winning almost no races and losing about 40% per wagered dollar or more. This includes low-priced horses!
If you did nothing but play against our low-priced toss-outs you could probably make a living.
Rarely, you will see a race where the play actually calls for 6 horses as contenders. In order to have that, you must have at least 2 and probably 3 or 4 double-digit odds horses. These are the ultimate "chaos races." The average price in these races is gigantic.
Hope this makes sense.
Dave
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