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[The Skeptic]

I have no agenda and have been absent from handicapping for about 8 years. I was a former customer of Dave's but left to raise my family and be a good daddy.

I do enjoy his work and I'm sure he'll get a call from me someday out of the blue.

Anyways, I must say I was "initially" intrigued by Daves "New Pace".

The figures sounded amazing 40%/60%/14%. I admit, I thought there was a nugget especially after seeing early speed profitabitability disappear from most players toolbox.

There probably is.

But upon thinking about it - nothing so far pertaining to those percentages is that enlightening - at least on the surface. I mean, the math and the 14 percent at 2nd call mean so little. No disrespect.

ROI - yes it might. But this new enlightenment of 40/60 and 14% in middle mean little.

I'm not provoking a challenge. Actually, the other way around. Set me straight.

At the mercy of no longer having a database and current horseracing figures I'll give it shot to explain:

What is average field size now days 8.24 horses a race per a google search?

That means 12.13% by shear randomness being first at any call or a random horse winning a race.

So 40% of the winners are first at the first call per Dave.

60% of the winners are not first at the first call per Dave.

I think Dave said 14% of the winners "TAKE" the lead at the 2nd call.

Not to be confused with x% of the winners were first at the first call and first at the second call.

No matter how you look at it, the horses are closer to the finish at the 2nd call so naturally that horse has a greater chance of winning then any other horse in the race. This is whether the horse was 1st at the 1st and maintained it at the second call or took the lead at the second. This number is greater then 50%....it's gotta be like 54% (40 plus 14). It's less then 60% as Dave includes the second call in his math.

So, 14% taking the lead at the second and 12.13% are pretty close. I was initially intrigued, I thought I was supposed to be but upon thinking I don't see anything that enlightening there. Maybe I just misunderstood the point.

Now to elaborate on Dave's 60% Late pace.

If the average field size is 8.24 (?).
60% of horse win who aren't 1st at the first call.
This means about 7.24 horses who aren't 1st at the 1st have 60% chance of winning.
This means 1 horse who is first accounts for 40% of the winning chances.
This also means that 1 other horse accounts for 14% of the winning chances who takes over 1st at the second call yet is included in Dave's 60% LP.
This then might mean 6.24 horse have 46% chance of winning.
This means ROUGHLY 7.37% chance for each of the remaining 6.24 horses to win.

So a 14% chance of the horse taking the lead at the second call and winnign - THAT's a big number though almost random (12%) but not an eye opener.
40% is big too. Not a big eye opener.
So therefore, 60% isn't either especially each remaining horse has just a ROUGH 7.37% chance of winning.

I will say I did watch a couple of other very interesting videos of Dave on his website. I think he mentioned a high odds horse essentially eliminating. So let's assume there's one of those in everyone of these races....

(for the sake of making the point I'm not going to back and retreive the exact number but maybe 2% chance of winning if over X odds)

Maybe then 5.24 horses have 44% chance of winning. Now we're at 8.4% chance of winning.

I'm really not trying to discredit Dave! Not at all, just seeing that the percentages aren't all that enlightening. Just trying to decipher things.

I personally found my sweet spot with about 15% winners in my heyday. I think if one tries betting 8.4% horses they'll go crazy and I'm sure that's not what Dave is preaching!

I keep thinking there's someway to combine the public percentages with handicapping principles...don't mean to over simplify.

So maybe I'll succumb and buy the book.

But in the meantime....can someone tell me where my math is wrong?

I think I'm right, but the point I'm sure which will be preached is profit.

Hopefully you pick up on my points.